The Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown on
Saturday is a Grade 1 chase over 2 miles. This year’s race had been
the early-season target of the last two Champion chasers but both
have been forced to miss the event through injury.
Reigning two-mile Champion Sire De
Grugy suffered a hip injury at home which will keep him out until the
New Year while Nicky Henderson has decided against running Sprinter
Sacre. The eight-year-old is the highest rated chaser in training but
has not raced since pulling up with an irregular heartbeat at Kempton
last December.
The race has been won by some of the
most popular chasers in modern times including Desert Orchid, Moscow
Flyer and Kauto Star. The withdrawal of the big two has certainly
opened up the race with a large field now expected after eighteen
horses were declared on Monday.
Dodging Bullets
If you’re identifying a favourite
for the Tingle Creek, no trainer has a better record in this race
than Paul Nicholls who won it eight times between 1999 and 2010. His
first winner was Flagship Uberalles who went on to win for different
trainers in 2000 and 2001. Nicholls struck again with Cenkos in 2002
before Kauto Star (2005, 2006), Twist Magic (2007, 2009) and Master
Minded (2008, 2010) gave him an unprecedented six consecutive
winners.
Nicholls has entered Dodging
Bullets and Hinterland this year, both of which tasted defeat on
their seasonal debut. Hinterland would appear to be the ideal
candidate for this race having won the Henry VIII Chase last year
over course and distance. However, he was pulled up after breaking a
blood vessel behind God’s Own at Exeter last month and that has to
be a concern.
Dodging Bullets [pictured] was strongly fancied
for last year’s Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham but he raced too keenly
and faded into fourth place. He ran well at the same course last
month behind Uxizandre and looks the more likely of the two to add to
Nicholls’s tally in the race. He is certainly in the right age
bracket with five, six and seven-year-olds having the best record.
The only older horses to win this race
in the past twenty years have been Moscow Flyer and Sizing Europe,
both Champions Chase winners. None of this year’s entries over the
age of eight are in that class so it is difficult to see the likes of
Alderwood, Somersby or Wishfull Thinking adding their name to the
roll of honour.
God’s Own
Recent winning form has been a common
feature among winners of this race and God’s Own and the Willie
Mullins trained duo of Ballycasey and Twinlight come into this
category. Ballycasey was aimed at the three-mile RSA Chase last
season in which he finished fourth. He was an impressive winner at
Gowran Park last month but this looks on the sharp side for him. The
worry with Twinlight is his jumping as he is inclined to hit one or
two and he cannot afford mistakes in a race of this quality.
God’s Own produced a stunning display
to win at Punchestown in May and beat Balder
Succes by five lengths on his reappearance at Exeter. The
runner-up was conceding 7lbs that day and made a crucial mistake
three out. God’s Own was not foot perfect himself so it would be
difficult to argue that he did not win on merit. Balder Succes had
beaten God’s Own at Kempton last February but jumped poorly here in
the Henry VIII at a time when the King stable were badly out of form.
Mullins has also
entered Felix Yonger who was nearly four lengths behind God’s
Own at Punchestown. He was runner-up to Moscow Mannon at Naas at
the start of November but needs to put up a career-best to win this.
Nicky Henderson relies on Oscar Whisky
who ran a fine race when fourth to Caid Du Berlais at Cheltenham in
the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He carried 11st 12lb that day and was only
beaten two and a quarter lengths. His best form over hurdles was at
two and a half miles and all three of his chase victories have come
at that distance.
Betting Guide
God’s Own currently leads Balder
Succes 2-1 on their head-to-head clashes but the market still favours
Alan King’s runner. God’s Own looked good value for his win at
Exeter and could confirm the form on Saturday.
Paul Nicholls has a great record in the
race and Dodging Bullets is preferred to Hinterland after his very
encouraging run at Cheltenham. He still held every chance going to
the last fence and that should have put him spot on for this. He
could be the each-way value in a very competitive renewal.