Choosing a winning horse is rarely luck and most punters with winning wagers have researched and analysed their bets. There are a lot of quality sites offering high-quality horse racing tips and there are a couple of things to look for when choosing a winning horse.
In this article, we will try to list several factors which we feel are key when determining a winning tip. These include looking at the stats, at the course record and at the betting market.
Look at the Stats
If you are a fan of statistics, then horse racing is for you. The downside of this is that there are tons of stats, and to go through all of them takes away a sizeable portion of your free time, but trust us it is worth it.
Looking at the stats has helped a lot of punters spot a winner they would have otherwise let slip. A good example of this would be the perennial runner-up to Tony McCoy in the Champion Jockey title, finally crowned champion in 2016, Richard Johnson.
So far this season from 842 runs he has 153 wins and a win per race ratio of 18.17%. However, his win rate in the last 7 days has been just 14.29%, winning just 3 of his last 21 runs.
A stats man will know that based on these numbers Richard Johnson should be avoided in the next several races. He will also know that, since Johnson is a class act, this bad run will not last forever. That is why an experienced punter will probably decide to wait for Johnson's first win and then back him to win a few consecutive races.
Before a race, a veteran punter looks at the information on the racing page and searches for trainers which have a good record on a certain course. Trainers who have delivered good results at a course are much more likely to repeat that feat once again.
The same thing applies to both the horse and the jockey. If there is a 'C' right next to the name of the horse, he has already won over the course, which can be really important for tracks with special features and characteristics.
Jockeys are the same. Ask every jockey and they will tell you that they have a favourite course. For example, Ruby Walsh rides Cheltenham like no other jockey out there.
Look at the Market
Do other punters know something that you don't know? You never know, and that is why it might be worthwhile to look at movements on the market.
If the horse that won the last race has been bet heavily on before the race, then others might know more than you think. Why is this important? Because if you notice the same thing happening with the same horse again, then you might be in on a winner and with a chance to make some money.