4 Horse Trainers Who Have Struggled In 2024

As the turf season draws to a close, it’s a fitting time to reflect and assess the performance of individual horse trainers, especially those with two-year-old runners, which is my area of particular interest. There are over 200 trainers involved in this segment alone. Horse trainers, in many ways, are creatures of habit, often displaying consistent patterns from season to season—or so it seems. However, the fortunes of these trainers can be remarkably variable. Some experience decades of success only to face a gradual or even sudden decline, occasionally relinquishing their licenses altogether. The career of Sir Henry Cecil, for instance, is an illustration of these shifting fortunes. The renowned Newmarket trainer saw highs and lows throughout his career, with Frankel ultimately marking the crowning glory of his life in racing.

I closely follow every horse trainer with juveniles in training. Some manage just a single two-year-old, while others, like Ralph Beckett, Richard Hannon, and Karl Burke, command impressive stables with over 100 horses. These names are true powerhouses in the industry.

However, which trainers have faced a noticeable decline in their fortunes this season?

This year, several prominent trainers have somewhat lost their standing:

1) Richard Hannon:

Hannon remains a respected figure, but this season’s results have been underwhelming. Despite his extensive string, his two-year-olds have achieved relatively little. 

2) James Tate:

Tate is a highly capable trainer, yet the number of two-year-olds he has sent to the track this season is dramatically low. A couple of significant owners may have moved on, which has impacted the stable. With fewer runners, it has naturally led to fewer winners. 

3) Roger Varian:

Varian has seen consistent success in past seasons, yet this year has been unusually slow. Not only are the numbers down, but there’s also a concerning shortage of winners. Many of his two-year-olds are settling for places rather than victories. Whether the stable will regain its former success remains to be seen. 

4) John & Thady Gosden:

Typically a formidable stable, the Gosdens have experienced a downturn with their two-year-olds, both last season and this one. Whether top owners have started sending their better horses elsewhere is unclear, but the stable’s current form indicates a lack of class horses, making next year a critical one. 

You may wonder, "What does it matter?" 

For gamblers, staying current on the form and performance of trainers is crucial. Bookmakers often price horses based on the reputation of the trainer, sometimes failing to adjust quickly to a trainer’s declining form. Betting on horses from these stables may not offer good value, as their horses tend to be underpriced yet continue to disappoint.

Meanwhile, the ascendant fortunes of Ralph Beckett and Karl Burke demonstrate the transient nature of horse racing. These two trainers seem poised to take leading roles in the two-year-old ranks, perhaps defining the next era of top trainers.

Auhtor: JC